The Monty Hall problem

Discuss Quiz Machines here..
Locked
Drpepper
Senior Member
Posts: 1389
Joined: Sun May 01, 2005 12:16 am
Location: North East coast

The Monty Hall problem

Post by Drpepper »

Hey..

Whilst playing deal or no deal, this occured to me... Surely you're twice as likely to get the bigger prize if you swap boxes at the end, like the monty hall problem proves. Allthough of course only if the endgame isn't fixed(Did anyone ever prove whether it was or not??)

For anyone not familiar with it...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Or am i just talking a load of shite... just a little inquisitive that's all.

Regards
User avatar
quizard
Senior Member
Posts: 890
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 10:33 pm
Location: It's grimmm up north

Post by quizard »

The Monty Hall Problem has no bearing on the DOND situation.

With MH you have a three way choice but you are shown one of the two losing choices, with the condition you cannot be shown your own box whether it is winning or losing.

So the only way you can lose by swapping is if you held the winning box in the first place which was a 1 in 3 chance. So by swapping your chance is always 2 in 3. In DOND you are given no such information. So on the TV it is a 50/50 chance that you choose the higher amount with two boxes left, swapping being irrelevant. On the quiz machine of course it is probably a 1 in 10 chance of choosing the higher amount no matter which box you choose LOL.
microhead
Junior Member
Posts: 29
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 12:34 pm

Post by microhead »

quizard wrote:On the quiz machine of course it is probably a 1 in 10 chance of choosing the higher amount no matter which box you choose LOL.
I suspect it's a 0 or 1 chance... :x
Locked