Advice on casino offer

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ob
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Post by ob »

cushelle wrote:The expected Value doesn't change if you bet on number or colour.

Expected Value of number=
£2000x36= £72,000
£72,000x (1/37)= £1945.95
EV= £1945.95 + £1,000

Expected Value of colour=
£2,000x2= £4,000
£4,000 x (18/37)= £1945.95
EV= £1945.95 + £1,000

As you're best off doing a one off spin then the least risk for one spin is given when you put £1,000 on black £1,000 on red. Your expected value is the same, but the risk for a given spin is lower. Your best outcome is £3,000 though, whereas if you do a number £73,000. Basically there is no right or wrong bet as your expected value is the same, just how much risk/reward you want.
No, You are wrong here. You are failing to account for the chance of the £1000 back, you are assuming you always get the £1000 back, whether you win or lose.

The EV of a number from the £2000 stake lets look at that:

1/37 off the time you hit the number, so 1/37 * £72000 = £1945.95 as you say
36/37 you miss and get the £1000 back from the £2000 so thats = £973

£1945 + £973 = £2918. Minus the £2000 stake from this. The EV from this bet is then £918.

The EV of a colour now.

18/37 times u hit the colour for £4000, so as you say £4000 *18/37 = £1945
19/37 you get £1000, ie. half ur stake back that is worth in EV terms £513

£1945 + £513 = £2458, minus the £2000 stake is £458!

So count yourself WRONG cushelle please :P
ob
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Post by ob »

Oh also, craps is the best house game to play not baccarat/puntobanco, you play the odds which are 100% gambles and you can bet 5-100 times your stake on the original pass/dontpass line bet which are already 99%+ bets to start.
cushelle
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Post by cushelle »

Yeah my bad.
Roll_With_It_Russ
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Post by Roll_With_It_Russ »

ob wrote:Oh also, craps is the best house game to play not baccarat/puntobanco, you play the odds which are 100% gambles and you can bet 5-100 times your stake on the original pass/dontpass line bet which are already 99%+ bets to start.
where can you pay craps live online please?
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Ruler of The World
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Post by Ruler of The World »

nowhere that I've ever heard of/seen.

I think I'll play 4 games of blackjack at £500 each. If I win the 1st I double up, win the 2nd I double up, win the 3rd I double up and then go back to £500 until I'm satisfied. I would get 4 cracks at this! Either that or I could do 2 attempts then have a £1000 spin on roulette covering 29-15 going through 0, 32 and 35 would be my jackpots.
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Ruler of The World
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Post by Ruler of The World »

good point actually, how about this, you place your bet, wait for it to confirm then switch off and check in 3 days time where you either have £1000 from the cashback or goodness knows what else. Then if it is the £1000 bet it all again and repeat the process for the following week. Would you be able to resist?
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Ruler of The World
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Post by Ruler of The World »

My horse form is putrid, I'd be very surprised if anyone does anything but lay my tips these days! But you know what'll happen... 1 day I'll bounce back with a vengeance... Saturday very nearly was that day but my banker let me down!
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