Axe to grind?

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JG
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Axe to grind?

Post by JG »

Right listen, email to William Hill after more sick hands.

Tournament ID9049583

Me vs r0y70.

Please look at the hand histories and my other hand histories and tell me why over 3000 games and over 300,000 hands (cash + stt) I have such skewed odds when I move in on a hand?

Basically my tracker software is showing that when I move in against an opponent, the outcomes of the cards are not even within many standard deviations of what should be expected for a few compared stats.

I believe that something is afoot and would like to know what it is.
I wish to discuss this at a personal level with someone face to face and not just via continued emails which explain via standard reply that a company of 70 years service would not risk its reputation. Maybe not, but are you aware of how rigged the 'set ups' are?

It's quite easy to produce a deal so that if you sample the flop/turn/river or pocket cards it all looks fair and evenly distributed. Delve deeper and you will see foul work at play.

Basically I would just like clarity. If you're offering a product similar to poker that offers thrills and spills via a series of predetermined deals aimed to level the playing field and provide cinematic finishes, then let me know. That way, I know I'm essentially wasting my time and the outdraws are to be expected.

If I can find a weak opponent who folds a lot, brilliant. There is no way to compensate for this, but an aggressive fish who reraises and gets put all in, or trapped all in with the worst, usually considerably the worst hand and then sucks out time and time again - that's my gripe.

Aggressive poker is fun, but not when it's so rigged that it's skewed for the less savvy aggressor.

Next time your auditors check your RNG which I'm sure is a brilliant RNG, functions perfectly and IS random, let them check all the hands where I'm all in versus any other opponent. You have the hand histories, I'm sure you have the analysis tools like I do, then see what you think of the results.

This is before we worry about any 'Absolute poker' type scandals.

Don't just try this with me, try it with the other reasonable people who complain. Some will just be tin foil hatters, but you will see a pattern of outdraws that is WELL over the standard expected for the samples you pick. They must all be winning players like me, not some tin foil hatted fish.

It'll be worth your while investigating.

Your best bet is not to use the cryptologic network. You should program your own in house William Hill poker software. As you know Cyrptologic poker is not unique to William Hill. In the same way I can play Reel King on the terminals in Coral, BetFred or William Hill etc

I'm not pointing the finger here directly at William Hill. I believe you've shopped around, offerred the customer a product, chosen the Cryptologic network and that is that. It 'works' fine, has a nice front end and to all intents and purposes makes money for your company.

An in house poker program would be far superior. I appreciate it's not easy, there's chance of corruption by the people who program it and for the sums of money involved, integrity is tested to the limit.

However once you see the peculiar outdraws that occur, it'd be worth your while entrusting your top boys to oversee such a project.

At the moment this is Mickey Mouse poker, nice when it's streaking, but when it wants to level the playing field, no chance, you don't stand a chance.

I know the way to reset it is to not play a fortnight and then only log on every month or so and switch off as soon as I suspect I am being cheated.

It's not the only poker network that does this, many others are at it as well.

I do hope you'll act on this and not just put it down to another tin foil hatter who needs a standard email reply...70 years service etc

Once again I beleive that William Hill has acted with integrity but the end product is laced with corruption due to circumstances beyond your control.


Thanks for listening,

G * ********

------------------------------------------------

Ok, I'm approx £2,500 up on stts over the last 12 months.
I play £5,£10,£20,£30 and £50 heads up primarily.

I target players with poor statistics.
I'm no great player myself, but I do know that one expect of being a winning player is to target the weak.

My gripe is that I feel, as you read, that I am being swindled by cinematic poker.

the poker tracker software I have at the moment is limited. It'll compare certain hands in certain situations but it's not overly versatile.

I guess a few will feel I need a bigger tin foil hat and will shout that it's "VARIANCE YOU FOOL!"

That's your opinion.

My opinion is that the the cards are being awarded to the fish to level the playing field and keep people playing for longer.
Get an aggressive fish and I'm sweating. Sure I snare 'em when I'm ahead usually, not possible all the time, but then they outdraw more than they should.

I wish to examine my stats in far more depth and publish them up in something other than umpteen ASCII characters bundled in a txt file.

Does anyone have any reccommendations for good tracker software that I can import txt ASCII files into and get pie charts? Graphs? Beautiful presentations that show my gripes? I also want deeper analysis tools. For example I can analyze how many Pocket pair vs their lower pocket pair situations go my way, so for example I can see, when I've moved all in pre flop with KK how many times xx (a pocket pair less than KK) outdraws me, I can't say work out how many times with KK vs xx I get outdrawn by a flush.

Please help.
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harry2
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Post by harry2 »

George

I don't use a tracker, maybe PokerPete could help. This looks like what you might be after.







http://www.pokertracker.com/products/PT ... nshots.php
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harry2
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Post by harry2 »

On second thoughts, you need something more.

Edit- no innuendos implied.

A more in depth analysis tool.
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JG
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Post by JG »

Cheers H2, but you're setting people up for rude replies there. I'll say therapy before Pokerpete says it. Come on, I'm not mike, but I am now believing that

"On line poker is not as fair as it may at first appear."
DildoDez
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Post by DildoDez »

Are all on-line poker hands not predetermined, with the entire hand (hole cards and community cards) attached to a number selected at random by the RNG?

What i mean is that, although the hand is selected at random, the cards that are dealt, are not.
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Post by pokerpete »

well some of my replies have been pre-empted.

tracking result to change how you play certain hands in certain situations to improve LONG TERM results (3000 games is short term) is worth doing, although if you're making funemental mistakes in your key decision making I would suggest re-reading your best poker books.

Using trackers to prove rigged 'cinematic' poker (that's hilarious BTW) is a bad idea.

You mention Mike and his conspiracy theories and that's a good comparison. That's what people like him do. They make up an answer an then seek proof for it. You'll almost always succeed.

I made a living from online and live poker for a couple of years and have made a healthy second income from it for a total of about 7 years. There aren't many things I haven't seen happen in both areas.

I personally know people who have career winnings in the millions, including one who is very closely involved with William Hill. Trust me, I know what I'm talking about here. You don't want to hear this JG but Your suspicions are unfounded

I was warned by pro players what "running Bad" really meant and eventually I experienced it. Not a bad night or a bad week or even a bad month. I had a nine month period of the worst luck / variance you could imagine. I wasn't doing anything differently, I just couldn't get a break. I couldn't win an 80/20 shot, never mind a coin flip. Tournament after tournament I'd get busted out just outside the money with cracked aces or set v set or full house v full house or miracle river outdraws.

this was live as well as online. I was playing 60 - 70 hours a week and it was brutal.

Another thing I'll say is don't trust the shark scope type player stats. I'm a very profitable and fairly experienced player. My shark scope stats have me as a loser on pokerstars. I use the account for fun and low stakes games. I play on it while drinking and surfing. my wife plays on it. I've been using it from the early days of my career when I made lots of mistakes. I use it to deposit small amounts and take a shot at parlaying it up to a buy in for a big live game which causes swings in my stats. Some of the losing / weak players you come up against might not always be the fish you think they are.

The guys at William Hill would have a laugh at your email if it wasn't so common. You'll get a standard response regarding independant checks / RNG etc. Many people make a decent living from live and online poker. Why would the software be frigged for some players and against others?
Maybe the answer is that people like me who publicaly defend poker software gain favour from the guys at the sites who control the luck dials and have them turned in our favour.

"the cards are being awarded to the fish to level the playing field"
can you imagine the super computers needed to rig it like this real time?
Looking at the very end of your post you talk about comparisons.
you obviously know your KK WILL beat an under pair 9 times out of 11 but remember KK v AK suited you're only 2/1 favourite. the swings in 2/1 bets can be very significant indeed. Heads up poker involves a lot of all in decisions so the varience will be massive. I recommend switching to 9 or 10 seat STTs.
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mr lugsy
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Post by mr lugsy »

pete,i was looking forward to your reply to georges post and you've done a very good job of rationalising things :)

i love the poker site conspiracies though and will ardently mantain that "some" things concerning online poker are more crooked than a crooked mans crooked sixpence,but not necessarily down to the sites involved.
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Post by pokerpete »

I put my hands up and say, in the past I was guilty of complaining about 'the ladbrokes river' or 'jokerstars'

online poker LOOKS rigged. I understand that. Here are a few points to remember with online poker compared to live poker which explains this appearance.

There's less pressure to survive
If you drive 45 minutes to a poker club and buy in to a £50 tournament, when you're out, that's it. Sure you can go and sit at a cash table but even a £1/£2 table is £100 minimum sit down and it's likely that you'll need to reload. To all intents and purposes it's £50 and if you lose you're in the car.
Online you can buy in to a new $10 game 30 seconds after you get knocked out. Where's the pressure? Why fold your marginal decision. It's not like your night is a complete wash out if you lose. There for, many more races, many more all ins, many more outdraws.

There's less pressure to impress
Live there's a table full of actual people watching you. If you put your chips in with filth and get caught you have to turn them over red faced and suffer the ridicule of the table. Online it's far less embarrassing and you can just move on. There for, people play more junk and there for more outdraws.

Lower general standard of play
To go out of your way to sit in a live public poker game requires a degree of confidence and implies a reasonable basic standard of play. That means less all in decisions. Standard of online play is generally lower than Live play so there will be more poor decisions made meaning more opportunities for outdraws.

More rivers dealt
I remember being in a £200 live tournament and noticing the dealer button went twice round the table before a river card was dealt. That's 20 hands of poker without a single shown card. Could you ever imagine that happening online? I challenge you to count how many consecutive hands you see without a river card being dealt. if it's more than half a dozen I'd be very suprised. More river cards = more outdraws.

The Memetic nature of the consiracy theory.
People who don't believe it's rigged don't talk as loudly as those who do. There for the belief that it's rigged spreads. It is not, in anyway rigged. The cards fall as randomly as they do live.
In live games I've seen a board of 10s,Js,Qs,Ks,As
I've seen AAvKKvQQvJJ abd the JJ won
I've seen a player dealt A,A three straight hands. doubled up 1st hand, stole blinds 2nd hand and got knocked out by 2,2 3rd hand
I've personally flopped a Royal Flush twice, once online and once live BOTH TIMES holding Kd,Jd
If that stuff didn't sometimes happen online it would be proof that online poker WAS rigged, not that it wasn't.
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mr lugsy
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Post by mr lugsy »

well put pete and i agree entirely with what you've said ,my main concern with online jiggery pokery is with absurd cashout policies citing anti money laundering laws even with small cashouts(mansion you suck!) when they'll take your money quite happilly without a copy of your full family tree for the last 5252 generations ,etc.
also player collusion and bots tend to get me agitated.
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Post by ma71lda »

I think I speak on behalf of the majority of Fruitchat when I say JG is an intelligent, witty and modest bloke. George, I like you in a 'virtual' sense but you can't have your cake and eat it mate. Being £2,500 up in a game which I'd assume is recreational more than anything isn't bad at all depending on the hours you put into it.

I'd like to track my hands soon as I feel as though I suffer many more beats than the average player, but thats it, I am an average player who more than likely plays badly without knowing it but I kept a mental record for a little while and in 100 mtt's I exited approx. 90 of them when in the lead pre and post flop. Unfortunate, fixed or a case of thats life? You decide.

Pre-determined hands, hmmm here's something some of you laddies players may have noticed. Somebody goes all-in with say, J,J and it folds to the big blind who is holding a bigger pocket pair so he calls, before the chips are in the middle and the cards have been shown, the flop, turn and river are down and we've all been dispersed to different tables. A little too scripted and like Dez said pre-dertermined in my opinion.

If any of us feel aggrieved and hard done by there are plenty of other sites out there where we can feed our cravings, not Mansion though. :wink:
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JG
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Post by JG »

Thanks for your replies, espically Poker Pete, I knew you wouldn't fail to turn up. I genuinely value your opinion and I know I may be coming across a little bit cuckoo and barking mad.
I know I could never play poker at anything above a recreational level. The game is far too cruel for me and as I have, like most fruit machine players, a deeply obsessive personality, I have trouble 'letting things go'. I'm going to try and be rational about this. I will invest in more sophisticated tracking software, as much to aid in leak fixing as to ingest statistics that prove for my own curiosity how unlucky/bad I really am.
I'll also act upon your adivce PP and after a break from heads up Stts, I'll move to the double your money (top finishers double, bottom lose) 10 player stts with a few standard payout structure/blinds 10 handed stts in the mix.
I've also been trash talking with several other 'characters' on WHill and starting grudge match battles heads ups. I may post these trash dialogues which may entertain some but others will feel the need to chew their own faces off rather than waste time reading them.

This is the reply WHill sent to me this morning.

Hi George,

Thank you for your e-mail.

As explained previously, the randomness of our random number generator is tested by comparing a very long sequence of generated numbers to various statistical distributions. If any of these tests are found to be outside theoretical limits, the random number generator is not used. The current version of the random number generator was tested (and is continually tested) using a sequence of 300,000,000 (three hundred million) numbers to verify its randomness.

The fairness of our software has been independently audited by Gaming Associates. Please visit http://poker.williamhill.com/help/player-support/ then choose 'View Certificate' for further details.

If you wish to dispute the matter further we recommend you contact I.B.A.S. The Independent Betting Adjudication Service are an authoritative, totally independent third party, offering adjudication for customers who have an unresolved betting dispute with their bookmaker. The I.B.A.S website and full contact details can be found at http://www.ibas-uk.com.

With regards,
Ash
Customer Services
William Hill
pokerpete
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Post by pokerpete »

The word "cruel" is perfect for poker.
The game is brutal. That's why I went back into full time work.
The more you depend on results, the harder the bad beats hurt.

The game online that suits me is 9 handed STTs on pokerstars. recreationally I play at $10 or $20. When I played for a living it was $30 or $50.

The strategy I find most effective is to resist the urge to play anything resembling 'proper poker' early on. I pass all but picture pairs and AK. AQ and 10,10 at a stretch if I'm in very late position. Where there are several limpers infront of me I may consider limping with suited aces and other pairs but I'm looking to hit the flop HARD to continue.

Ideally I'm hoping for a big hand in the first 3 or 4 level to double up from a fish.

If I don't get a big hand or flop hard as described above by the time my chips drop below 10xBB I look to make an all in stand on any +ev or 0ev hand.

If I survive that all in or I do get my big hand then I can play a few more hands, pick off short stacks, avoid big stacks and make top 3. from there I get very aggressive and try to get HU with at least half the chips. If both of the other players are desperate to make it to HU then you can take advantage.

Not saying the above is necessarily the best way to go, but it suits me and I win a lot of STTs

Live I play MTTs and have a completely different game, but that's another story.
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