yesterday - Predateur goes off favourite, nearly all of its rivals fell and it was beaten by a 10-1 shot... ARGH!!!!!!!!!!
Recouped a bit on Sizing europe but Jesus christ I am SICK TO DEATH of 10s 16s 50s 66s ETC ETC ETC coming in ALL THE BLOODY TIME...
Change of strategy now, Im NEVER betting on favourites anymore.. Lump on the no hopers instead.. HUGE profits if they win..
the first at Fontwell yesterday - 50-1............ 33-1 came 2nd, 11-4 fave comes 3rd... 11-4 is a shit price, ugly.. I hate it.
Stupid Bastarding horses..
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stuart4010
- Senior Member
- Posts: 325
- Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2005 1:48 pm
Ok, lets look at yesterday's racing.
Carlisle - winners priced at 7/4, 8/1, 4/1, 16/1, 9/1, 2/9. 9/1.
Cheltenham - winners priced at 7/1, 5/1, 9/4, 16/1, 10/1
Cork - winners priced at 3/1, 4/1, 7/4, 6/1, 4/1, 2/1, 4/9
Fontwell - winners priced at 6/1, 16/1, 8/1, 15/2, 6/5, 4/7, 50/1
Is it unreasonable that of the 27 races, there are 3 16/1 or greater winners?
Prices quoted in the bookmakers are the chances that the bookmaker gives of winning the race - it's not a guide to say that this one will definitely win this race because it's priced 4/9 - they just strongly favour the horse to win.
The only time you should back a horse is when you think that the horse has a better chance of winning than the price quoted by the bookmaker.
Carlisle - winners priced at 7/4, 8/1, 4/1, 16/1, 9/1, 2/9. 9/1.
Cheltenham - winners priced at 7/1, 5/1, 9/4, 16/1, 10/1
Cork - winners priced at 3/1, 4/1, 7/4, 6/1, 4/1, 2/1, 4/9
Fontwell - winners priced at 6/1, 16/1, 8/1, 15/2, 6/5, 4/7, 50/1
Is it unreasonable that of the 27 races, there are 3 16/1 or greater winners?
Prices quoted in the bookmakers are the chances that the bookmaker gives of winning the race - it's not a guide to say that this one will definitely win this race because it's priced 4/9 - they just strongly favour the horse to win.
The only time you should back a horse is when you think that the horse has a better chance of winning than the price quoted by the bookmaker.
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QuizMaster
- Senior Member
- Posts: 1254
- Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2005 12:40 pm
If you're that sick of outsiders coming in why not try laying favourites instead?
This has two benefits:
A/ You'll have more winners
B/ You'll go less time between losers
Not saying you'll win in the long run though - these things tend to even themselves out.
This has two benefits:
A/ You'll have more winners
B/ You'll go less time between losers
Not saying you'll win in the long run though - these things tend to even themselves out.
Stupid punters. Telly all the week, screw the wife Saturday
HORSE....RACING.....IS.......FIXED.......IT ALWAYS HAS BEEN, IT ALWAYS WILL BE.
Seriously though, forget about your Fallons and Kellys they were/are pure greedy. Lets look at horses and trainers and form. You'll often see a horse win at 16/1+ odds with no real substancial form, just like MJD has pointed out. Why is this? This is because the horse is still in prime form and top condition the reason its come nowhere in its last 4/5 races is because trainer or owner has told the jockey on board not to win, so that everytime it runs like a donkey its odds will be longer in the next race. And when it hits the magical 16/1, 20/1 or even 33/1,bang, it runs the race of its life and what mugs, and I'm one of them, don't know is that the trainer and owner have got mates left, right and centre backing it.
Personally I love horseracing, probably always will. National Hunt is where the money is to be made, take for instance a 5 horse race and there is a big price runner, back it each way you never whats going to happen over 3 miles, there have been big price winners from small fields in the last couple of weeks.
Sadly, horseracng is very similar to fruits, its not all about what you know, its also about who you know.
Seriously though, forget about your Fallons and Kellys they were/are pure greedy. Lets look at horses and trainers and form. You'll often see a horse win at 16/1+ odds with no real substancial form, just like MJD has pointed out. Why is this? This is because the horse is still in prime form and top condition the reason its come nowhere in its last 4/5 races is because trainer or owner has told the jockey on board not to win, so that everytime it runs like a donkey its odds will be longer in the next race. And when it hits the magical 16/1, 20/1 or even 33/1,bang, it runs the race of its life and what mugs, and I'm one of them, don't know is that the trainer and owner have got mates left, right and centre backing it.
Personally I love horseracing, probably always will. National Hunt is where the money is to be made, take for instance a 5 horse race and there is a big price runner, back it each way you never whats going to happen over 3 miles, there have been big price winners from small fields in the last couple of weeks.
Sadly, horseracng is very similar to fruits, its not all about what you know, its also about who you know.
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jeffvickers
- Senior Member
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- Joined: Wed Nov 08, 2006 12:05 pm
- Location: North of England
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QuizMaster
- Senior Member
- Posts: 1254
- Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2005 12:40 pm
This begs the age old conundrum about fixed horse races - If a race is fixed, but I don't have any information about how - then how do I know I'm not betting on the horse that's been fixed to win? i.e. What difference does it make?
But I'd still lay the favourite a good half hour before the off. They are seldom the ones that have been fixed to win - if there is a fix - the steamers will pile in on something else just before the off.
But I'd still lay the favourite a good half hour before the off. They are seldom the ones that have been fixed to win - if there is a fix - the steamers will pile in on something else just before the off.
Stupid punters. Telly all the week, screw the wife Saturday
I've never really got my head around this 'laying' malarkey. I know you lay the favourite to lose and you can lay midrace ( I think), but what sort of odds do get, I assume it depends on the price of the favourite, field size etc. Also, where can you 'lay', is it just online or can you do it on the high street.
Cheers if anyone has the patience to explain.
Cheers if anyone has the patience to explain.
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QuizMaster
- Senior Member
- Posts: 1254
- Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2005 12:40 pm
You can only lay online at Betfair. The principle is simply the reverse of backing e.g if a horse is 2/1 favourite and you want to lay it, then you lay £10. If it wins, you lose £20 (2/1 x £10) - if any other horse wins, you win £10.
Obviously this is a bit risky if you're laying a 100/1 outsider, snce you'd need £1000 in your account just to win a tenner. But then it's 100/1.....
Obviously this is a bit risky if you're laying a 100/1 outsider, snce you'd need £1000 in your account just to win a tenner. But then it's 100/1.....
Stupid punters. Telly all the week, screw the wife Saturday
Sizing Europe is the next big thing, Champion Hurdle bound now. Poketed a nice £40 profit on this today, and it was one amazing performance beating Hardy Eustace by 8 Lengths! and some other top horses 
I was going to post about it on here, but doing that Always curses the fook out of the horses i go for! Sorry chaps
I was going to post about it on here, but doing that Always curses the fook out of the horses i go for! Sorry chaps
boom