Fruit Machine Chat

I once backed a Tranmere player to score the first goal. He was 89-1. Was a bit skint then so I bet £1. Anyway it was v Everton when we beat them in the cup. Anyway he ran into the box and the ball bounced off his knee and he scored. Happy days, easiest £90 of my life.

The most I've ever won is £149 from 4 draws (£1 stake).

Like most, one result has let me down on a decent accy many times.

And it all starts again Saturday. A few bets on Sat Morning and Jeff Stelling & Co on Soccer Saturday, awesome

Good price bet for Sat - West Ham v Man City 11/5 to draw.

ma71lda wrote:Like most, one result has let me down on a decent accy many times.

tell me about it, i had a £300 odd return let me down last season all i needed was Arsenal to beat West Ham! Also Celtic cost me one week for a big accumulator. Makes you sick cos they win most weeks until you need them to
Cant wait to start them up again tho makes the matches a bit more exciting!

As for my biggest win id say it was around £200 on an accumultor.

I did an accumulator once, the first i'd ever done. Anyway I picked 9 results. All random ones which I had hunches about. Anyway I filled the form out wrong ie: Pompey to win away at Chelsea when I meant to do a chelseas home win. anyway 7 out of my 9 results came in but it was worthless anyway.

I'm thinking this week. Tranmere to beat Leeds Liverpool to beat Villa, Wigan to Beat Everton and Bolton to beat Newcastle

I must be mad

Why not throw a tenner of your Jailbirds winnings on it, should pay towards £500 if it comes in

Football accas are one the worst ever betting mediums (media?)


As bookies bet to about 111% on each match you are effectively getting

100/111% back on singles = 90% of the true odds

On a double you are getting

(100/111) x (100/111) or 81% of the true odds

On a treble you are getting
(100/111) x (100/111) x (100/111) or 73%

etcetera

4 fold = 65.8%
5 fold = 59.3%
6 fold = 53.5%
7 fold = 48.1%
8 fold = 43.4%
9 fold = 39.1%
10 fold = 35.2%


Open an account on Betfair or Betdaq. They bet to at least 101% as you are betting against other people, not bookmakers.

Returns here would be

(100/101) for a single= 99%

Double

(100/101) x (100/101) = 98%

3 fold = 97.1%
4 fold = 96.1%
5 fold = 95.1%
6 fold = 94.2%
7 fold = 93.3%
8 fold = 92.3%
9 fold = 91.4%
10 fold = 90.5%.


As an example

Bookies odds for Premiership this weekend

Bolton 11/8 Draw 11/5 Newcastle 7/4

Betfair odds

Bolton 2.64 (nearest fraction = 13/ Draw 3.3 (2.3/1 or for comparison to bookies odds 11.5/5 ) Newcastle 3.05 (just over 2/1)


Of course you can get lucky in the bookies with a ten team accumulator
but remember you would only be getting 35.2% of the true odds, so a
£10 acca that returns £1000 would really be worth about £2800.

But Harry you can't bet doubles and trebles in the traditional sense on betfair. Don't you have to find someone offering the exact treble you want and even then they dont reflect the odds offered in the singles markets. Also you can't do lunatic 15 home win accas on betfair . My Dad once got 13/14 homes which would have been 3000-1

In answer to the original question the most I won was £60 ish on a four timer in the Uefa cup for a pound stake, but I'm only a casual gambler.

Click on M for multiples in BF. Not sure of the liquidity though.

Biggest win was two years ago. Went to back Reading to win the Championship after first game of the season (they lost). Price went out from 14/1 to 20/1. Had a £6000/£300. Paid off the credit card bill !

Harry2, after reading a few of your posts/threads I get the impression you are a very clued up and highly intelligent individual wh knows a lot more than the average punter. Personally, football bets are for a bit of interest whilst watching Soccer Saturday. I bet £5 on a Sat. and £2 midweek. Spread over a season thats approx £280, if my winnings equal this I am happy anything more is a bonus!

The true odds and percentages are a bit of an eye opener though, and you wonder why you never see a poor Bookie, unless he's called John McCririck :P

Problem is I've done about £60k on roulette .

MUG

harry2 wrote:Football accas are one the worst ever betting mediums (media?)


As bookies bet to about 111% on each match you are effectively getting

100/111% back on singles = 90% of the true odds

On a double you are getting

(100/111) x (100/111) or 81% of the true odds

On a treble you are getting
(100/111) x (100/111) x (100/111) or 73%

etcetera

4 fold = 65.8%
5 fold = 59.3%
6 fold = 53.5%
7 fold = 48.1%
8 fold = 43.4%
9 fold = 39.1%
10 fold = 35.2%


Open an account on Betfair or Betdaq. They bet to at least 101% as you are betting against other people, not bookmakers.

Returns here would be

(100/101) for a single= 99%

Double

(100/101) x (100/101) = 98%

3 fold = 97.1%
4 fold = 96.1%
5 fold = 95.1%
6 fold = 94.2%
7 fold = 93.3%
8 fold = 92.3%
9 fold = 91.4%
10 fold = 90.5%.


As an example

Bookies odds for Premiership this weekend

Bolton 11/8 Draw 11/5 Newcastle 7/4

Betfair odds

Bolton 2.64 (nearest fraction = 13/ Draw 3.3 (2.3/1 or for comparison to bookies odds 11.5/5 ) Newcastle 3.05 (just over 2/1)


Of course you can get lucky in the bookies with a ten team accumulator
but remember you would only be getting 35.2% of the true odds, so a
£10 acca that returns £1000 would really be worth about £2800.

maybe, but while it's true that most bookies bet to 111% you can reduce this to 106 or 107 by shopping around.

And Betfair has perfect markets on Premiership games but you still need to add 4% to 5% commission (for most of us). So the difference isn't really that great for football matches. Betfair is better for horses and golf where traditional bookies have ridiculous over-rounds.

And should you really be gambling if you don't think you are getting value? If you ARE getting value, then by your same argument the incorrect odds are now in the gambler's favour so an accumulator is the preferred bet!

dangerous wrote:But Harry you can't bet doubles and trebles in the traditional sense on betfair. Don't you have to find someone offering the exact treble you want and even then they dont reflect the odds offered in the singles markets. Also you can't do lunatic 15 home win accas on betfair . My Dad once got 13/14 homes which would have been 3000-1

In answer to the original question the most I won was £60 ish on a four timer in the Uefa cup for a pound stake, but I'm only a casual gambler.

you can force accumulators on Betfair, but only if the games aren't at the same time

i.e. you could have had a double on liverpool and arsenal tonight just by taking your winnings from the liverpool game and putting them all on arsenal, which is all a double actually is.

Nowhere near as much fun though

It's possible to get the best of both worlds in my opinion.

I still love that Soccer Saturday feeling when I've had the £5 accas on 10 matches etc. Even though you know the bookies are getting their pound of flesh, it's the sheer enjoyment it offers.

For proper gambling I stick to £500 singles on betfair.

QuizMaster wrote:
For proper gambling I stick to £500 singles on betfair.

So Stern John cost you a fair bit last night then?

Put it this way - he's not on my Xmas card list