World Cup top scorer

stuart4010 · Post by **stuart4010** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 6:30 pm

You heard it here first, lump onto Luca Toni @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes). Lampard @ 50/1 looked a tempter too, penalty taker and all.

harry 3 · Post by **harry 3** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:21 pm

You heard it here second, Miroslav Klose 28/1 for me and a little on Shevchenko at 25/1.

Drpepper · Post by **Drpepper** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:56 pm

Wudn't mind a punt on Toni for 33/1, sadly for me checked oddschecker and could only find 22/1 on him... Gillardino is also a good bet too, but was roughly the same.

Why is Ronaldo favourite to be top scorer, he's useless?

joe3_3 · Post by **joe3_3** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 12:35 am

i think an e/w bet on lampard or rooney is well worth a punt.

harry 3 · Post by **harry 3** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 1:29 am

Bookies rule 1.

Everybody bets on England so they knock the price down to less than average odds

Bookies rule 2. Each way punters are mugs.

....because if you get a place you are only getting 2/1 your total stake for a 25/1 shot

.... and if it wins you wish you had the bet to win.

ie. England are 1/2 to win their group. Stupid odds!!!! Last time they played Sweden they lost at home.

joe3_3 · Post by **joe3_3** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 2:18 am

Each way punters arent mugs at all, there not great for doing odds in single figures but a bet like 50/1 come on. Of course its worth a go.

stuart4010 · Post by **stuart4010** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 9:57 am

I'd have to agree, each way betting can be worthwhile - i've had a few 33/1 + results at the major golf tournaments thanks to each-way betting.

Fader · Post by **Fader** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 10:21 am

agree with harry, i have only ever done one E/W in my life, and i got £2.50 - wont be doing it again, just aint worth it

nudgesuk · Post by **nudgesuk** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 12:01 pm

id have to disagree i think e/w on a goalscorer can be worth while for instance

£10 e/w on a goalscorer at odds of 33/1 - 1/2 of the odds for a place

win = 515.00
place = 175.00

£10 e/w on a horse at odds of 33/1 - 1/5 of the odds for a place

win £416.00
place £76.00

so i would say that u get far better e/w odds on a goalscorer and its well worth covering your bet by going e/w

Fader · Post by **Fader** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 12:47 pm

id say on a horse maybe (but only if its say 40's to 1), but in football its pointless

harry 3 · Post by **harry 3** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:58 pm

Here is a fact for all you each way punters. Only 1 in 80 33/1 shots wins. I await all the mugs who will be betting each way on the Grand National in ten days time.

I know a bookmaker who lays odds of groups of 4 or 5 named horses completing the course and he has told me that he has paid out THREE bets in 25 years. Best thing to do is to take all your mates bets and take a chance (or hedge with betfair)

joe3_3 · Post by **joe3_3** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 9:10 pm

BUT what is your point in saying one in 80 33/1 wins?
Surely that shows you that its worth betting on it at each way? As its unlikely to win? So you make money if its placed???????????? And if you bet to win and it doesnt you only win one in eighty times?

And as for the national bet whats that got to do with ew betting.
Thats not e/w at all

stuart4010 · Post by **stuart4010** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 10:11 pm

Re the 1 in 80 33/1 shot winning - i can except that, but isn't the skill picking out the ones that have a better chance? I mean, if I give a golfer a better than 33/1 chance, and I see him in laddies at 33's, then i'm going to back him each way. It's mathematically speaking the only time that you should really bet - when the price offered to you by the bookie is greater than the chance you give the team/horse/golfer etc.

Another example (of a previous bet)
Team quoted at 7/1 to win their respective league, £200 e/w. They win the league, so that was £1400 back off the win, and £375 back off the place. If they place, i'm only down £25. To me, that makes a lot more sense than punting £200 on the nose.

It's each to their own though I guess.

mjd · Post by **mjd** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 11:00 pm

each ways on 20-1 + shots in horse racing aint bad.. True I never do it hardly ever unless advised

(ie - collier hill the other day) I went £2.50 EW on it (I know, thats nowt - but its all I had) and that returned £12.50..
If I never went EW I would have got nothing..

But like i say.. rarely bet on bigtime outsiders like that!

harry 3 · Post by **harry 3** » Wed Mar 29, 2006 11:40 pm

The point is really that you have better value on an even money chances that win about 40-45% of the time rather than a 33/1 shot winning once in 80 times. Of course some 33/1 shots have better chances than others as you say the game is to pick the correct ones. Bookmakers are still full of mug punters though. Once you have visited a betting exchange you would never need to set foot inside a bookies ever again.

example per the national

Here are the latest odds (WillHills, subject to change of course):

5-1 Hedgehunter
11-2 Clan Royal
12-1 Numbersixvalverde
16-1 Innox, Royal Auclair
18-1 Sir Rembrandt
20-1 Cornish Rebel, Dun Doire, Jack High
25-1 Garvivonnian, Lord of Illusion, Silver Birch
28-1 Direct Access, Joes Edge
33-1 Ebony Light, Eurotrek, It Takes Time, Juveigneur, Le Duc, Ross Comm, Sir Oj
40-1 Bar

Betfair.

Clan Royal 6.3/1
Hedgehunter 6.3/1
Numbersixalverde 13.8/1
Innox 16.2/1
Dun Doire 26/1
Sir Rembrandt 20/1
Cornish Rebel 25/1
Jack High 21/1
Lord of Illusion 35/1
Royal Auclair 34/1
Sir OJ 41/1
Garrivonnian 24/1