Fruit Machine Chat

Hey..

Whilst playing deal or no deal, this occured to me... Surely you're twice as likely to get the bigger prize if you swap boxes at the end, like the monty hall problem proves. Allthough of course only if the endgame isn't fixed(Did anyone ever prove whether it was or not??)

For anyone not familiar with it...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Or am i just talking a load of shite... just a little inquisitive that's all.

Regards

The Monty Hall Problem has no bearing on the DOND situation.

With MH you have a three way choice but you are shown one of the two losing choices, with the condition you cannot be shown your own box whether it is winning or losing.

So the only way you can lose by swapping is if you held the winning box in the first place which was a 1 in 3 chance. So by swapping your chance is always 2 in 3. In DOND you are given no such information. So on the TV it is a 50/50 chance that you choose the higher amount with two boxes left, swapping being irrelevant. On the quiz machine of course it is probably a 1 in 10 chance of choosing the higher amount no matter which box you choose LOL.

quizard wrote:On the quiz machine of course it is probably a 1 in 10 chance of choosing the higher amount no matter which box you choose LOL.

I suspect it's a 0 or 1 chance... :x