Specifically 14 reds
One in 2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024,2048,4096,8192,16184
This is disregarding the zero, obviously the odds of 14 losing even money bets are MORE likely than One in every 16,184
Starting at £2
£2,L1£4,L2£8,L3£16,L4£32,L5£64,L6£128,L7£256,L8£512,L9£1024,L10£2048,L11£4096,L12£8192,L13(unlucky)£16,384
You stake £2 on red/black. Bear in mind we are working without a zero, so I'm describing a situation that is rosier than it works out on a FOBT/in the casino.
You lose once (L1), you have to stake £4 to keep the system going.
From my experience in on line casinos, £10k is the max bet I have ever seen, often it is much lower.
If the 13th same colour/zero comes in, Red22's mate is sunk. This will happen every 1 in 8192 'forays'. I did actually post the proper odds with zero accounted for somewhere else.
Anyhow, obviously with this 100% payout example, it implies winning £16,382 and then on that 8192nd time of starting out with a £2 stake, you lose £16,384 to be even. Hard luck.
£700/week => 350 betting forays (ie double until win/cap). Sticking with my 100% example....
350/8192 = what? About 24?
So just over twice a year, he can expect the sword of Damocles to slaughter his bankroll.
If I was to play the system for a month, let's say 28 days, chances are I'd make £2,800. Tempting. However, assuming a 10k max bet, I'd have to ask if I was happy to lose over £16k for the chance of a probable £2.8k, the answer, is no, assuming the big loss=> pack up your bags and admit defeat.
The only way this can be a +ve EV is if there is some kind of major bonus whoring going on here, which may explain the multiple sites.
If he is whoring, he may as well bet all 36 numbers + zero and get the turnover thing done faster. Guaranteed lose, but no nasty variance.
PhD physics aside, taking roulette as a pure game of chance where physics doesn't play a role and assuming you can't fraud the software, cheat the croupier, real hustle some extra chips on the table......as Superman says, it's rock solid, can't argue with the maths.
The question is, is the entertainment you derive, worth paying 2.8%?
This poses an interesting question about the human psyche, which professor Mark Griffiths has studied.
There are two main drives to playing s34 AWP. The first is the 'video gamers' psyche, the second is the 'gambler's psyche'. Note these are actually very closely related. Superman is clearly more the former than the latter, but I would suggest he is not totally without the latter. Card nights and forays into Lisa's. Albeit card nights with mates are seen as a way of banishing the rake, a gamble is a gamble.
I am more split down the middle, I liked the odd game of Blitz on the Vic 20, but an £8 token repeater on Crystal Maze was also a huge allure.
It's an interesting topic. Some people are born hardcore gamblers, but luckily for them they are never exposed to addictive gambling, so the thought of entering a betting shop, casino just doesn't appeal as a lifestyle choice.
As for me, I've only played on line for play money or
1) Staked £25 worth of small bets to qualiy for a poker freeroll
2) Staked £x for a free £x whereby the bonus whore has +EV
3) Played Betfair zero roulette for the 'craic'
I'm just over £100 up on roulette on line. I could have been £10,000,000 up on Betfair, but they barred me for being a zero roulette pro. I wouldn't believe that if I were you.
No, £100+a little bit on line.
Now FOBT. I know I made a bit of a joke, told a few stories, went on about 4dingers etc ect
Truth of the matter I played a FOBT for PR. Bookies which did have a GUAC inside. On a side note that bookies no longer has an AWP. However over the years it has had Vamp it up, Top Giza, Top Gears, Billy The Quid, DOND What's in your box?(p1 - first time I ever played the machine, my mate played before me, think they had one in that cinema in Gloucester, or it may have been Chequers or whatever it's called next door), Cash Attack and then a GUAC (Leisure Link) but it was GUAC for WELL over a year. Ady probably knows what I'm on about.
Anyhow it was a bit old boys clique and sometimes you'd get a duffer on the GUAC and there were only so many times you could check the static L*s down the road. So you'd maybe pull up a pew and do little diddy widdy bets on roulette. Or that silly dog game. Trouble is, had a couple of £20ish losses, make it back on Cluedo, once had a £55 dinger on the ding ding off £1.
Then the fateful day. The fateful day. Was going in for the GUAC, which I didn't post at the time, also wanted to check that pretty tune multi line, 20 widgety reel of fortune thing which is actually only on Global Draw.
Anyhow, big pots on the POG, got drawn in and whoomped a stash for an eventual £125 or whatever off 3 leps, wasn't too much down and could have whoomped on GUAC and made my money back and written it off as a waste of time, but nah, quick £10 on roullette and BANG! BANG! BANG! The most sensational run of bad luck. To be fair, had a few respites previously, get a bit down, win most back. But this was BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! Sunk right down, struggled around the -£600ish mark, but you all know that the machine was a bad of sand heavier when I left
Embaressing yes, but Fruit Chat is all about the times when you look back and think what a TWAT of a move that was. No point being sorry for yourself, I should have fucked PR and gone for the barring which never came. What's worse a 1k loss or being asked to leave?
So me, roughly, on line casinos about £100 up, FOBT (inc Rainbow Riches etc, not just roulette) about £1000 down.
Poker is just far more entertaining on line than a soul destroying roulette wheel, I don't feel the compunction to play on line, yeah zero roulette was a bit more tempting.
As for FOBT, well that shop wasn't too bad on the skirts of Hov, BUT when I've popped into various Hills to check the L8s
Who plays roulette on FOBT?
1) Look I'm not going to get all BNP here, but it IS mostly foreign looking people in clusters who have poor hygiene, usually body odour, unwashed clothes and halitosis in various degrees of severity.
2) The desperate suit. The desperate suit has the aftershave on and looks presentable, but he's in a world of hurt. A world of hurt. The notechanger doesn't stop whirring, his hand as shaking and he's on an adrenaline rush tinged with misery. Usually heard muttering 'thank fuck for that' as his number finally comes in on the £100 stake.
3) The doley. The doley always has a winning system. He makes £2,000 a week. He's a professional rouletter and knows every trick in the book.
Have you got a cigarette? Have you got a light? Spare some change mate.
4) The professional snail. The professional snail is a mollusc of slimy demeanour. He usually crawls slowly and deliberately to the bookmakers. He has trouble getting through the door and must avoid trapping his tentacles in the hinges or getting trampled on by the many smelly foreign people. When he does get his money on, not only can he count him/herself lucky that he, she has both sets of reproductive organs, but shehe also has acute decryptable Wi-fi interception skills that enable 100% accurate prediction of the next number. This money enables purchase of premium crispy icerberg lettuces and firearms to defend themselves with when the smelly people crowd around.
As for casinos, barely ever visited in my life, about £20 up.
As for discipline, not as good as Superman, my vice is playing out silly lo-techs, you know which ones, which can waste time and be of small +EV.
Ob, you're the MattV of the on line world, if anyone could get back to back 'G0 All the Way' s on a roulette wheel, you could.
Wowser. Long post.