National lottery

[theoak]

yeah, but people also want to be able to play every day, rather than save up £3 a day and gamble once a year! gamblers tend not to be very logical about it (else people wouldnt gamble at all!)

[merlin]

I would say though i'm a logical gambler, because most of the money i put away goes on the stock market.

Since business and the world in general is one big gamble in itself an "investment" is in itself just a *logical* gamble.

Im also an Illogical gambler at times, but it's good to ponder the mathmatics of odd's over any gamble even if you consider it illogical from the outset.

People ain't so stupid, many people choose 123456 as a lottery number, logically they think "nobody else will choose 123456" but since many think the same thing the system fails.

Is this stupid?
no because i know they are thinking on the right lines, the trouble is, so is many others.
Clearly the problem is the jackpot is shared, and people know if they choose something no one else is choosing they'll win the lot, but as i say it is flawed and you see why.

People do think about things for sure, someone is always inventing a "system", so these are illogical logical gamblers! LOL

[theoak]

not all invesment is a gamble at all! have you heard of ISAs? your bog-standard Bank accounts?! The difference is that it SHOULD be the case that the higher the risk, the higher the potential returns.

And the logic 'choose something no one else would choose' is NOT a flawed logic in itself, the only flaw is incorrectly guessing what numbers no one else will choose. As you said the idea of choosing 123456 to prove a point is actually very stupid as a lot more people trying to prove the same point will chose these numbers over what would be percieved by any person 'as a truely random selection'

[Cardinal Sin]

If you don't want to have to share your jackpot prize with lots of other folk, pick numbers that are above 31 (and then hope that they come up) - that way you eliminate all the people who choose their numbers based on people's birthdays.

[theoak]

yes, I agree with this. Since any combination is equally likely (or unlikely) to come up, it would make sense to choose numbers solely over 31 and not in a row. But again it is just second guessing other people who may have the same ideas.

[theoak]

Since business and the world in general is one big gamble in itself an "investment" is in itself just a *logical* gamble.

PS: This is utter rubbish, a risk (or 'gamble' if you prefer) can only be evaluated against the possible gains from it. To compare the stock market; which is very likely to show a steady profit (over time, with a balanced portfolio) to gambling which is VERY likely to show a steady loss over time is a little obsurd.

[merlin]

Tell that to the people who invested in the dot com boom, if you invest in an overpriced stock you may just be throwing money away.

But they were not stupid it's just they over evaluated the future of those stocks and paid dearly.

Some came out ok after the devastation such as yahoo, ebay, amazon etc, but many went bankrupt because they were not proper businesses, anyone who buys individual stocks is limited to the future of that stock.

Yes the stock market as an INDEX does well over time, 10% per year for the last 130 years in fact, but not all the businesses survive.

Picking individual stocks can certainly be dangerous and a gamble.

[merlin]

BTW i'm not saying investing in stocks is bad, if you did it instead of true gambling you would certainly on average be better off. Theres no doubt about it!
And most often times better than putting your money in the bank.

BUT theres a human side to all this, if you see your stocks drop 50% are you the type to hold tight/buy some more for cheaper, or run, you can evaluate the situation based on fundamentals and you can make the right decision, but if you make the wrong few decisions at the wrong time, you could be counting your losses till you die, or may be waiting 10-20 years to break even.
It can and does happen, to both noob's and experts alike.

Your profit however needs to be counted against overall inflation, if your profit is below overall inflation, that is a loss.
It also technically needs to be above standard interest rates aswell.

[bigv038]

i mean if you just had the guts to throw £1000 on one number once a year, its 1 in 36 chance of turning £1000 into a whopping £36,000.
Mathmatics is your friend if you want to win.

what about zero?

[merlin]

i mean if you just had the guts to throw £1000 on one number once a year, its 1 in 36 chance of turning £1000 into a whopping £36,000.
Mathmatics is your friend if you want to win.

what about zero?

Well yeah zero (if theres just the one) means the odds is 1 in 37,
you could bet on zero, but i would imagine mathmatically it turns up slightly less than other numbers.

Something you could do is watch the table, and how many spins, if after 36-40 spins there is no zero, you could then put your £1000 down on zero, and hope the law of averages is on your side, but you can't assume you'll win in any case.

Along with the lottery there is a second option, a very popular one at that: Premium bonds.

Good thing about premium bonds is you'll never ever lose your stake, and your money is safer than being in a bank.

Every month they(now) make 2 bond holders millionaires.

However the odds are not as good as the lottery, if you buy £24,000 premium bonds with average luck you should win £50-100 every month, but your odds of getting bigger prizes are less, you might occasionaly hit a £500-1000 win on that money.

I guess the fun in those is when/if you get a NSI letter, it might have a nice big cheque instead of the small £50-100 win.

But really you have to throw alot at them, i guess a fair minimum to ensure some wins would be about £2400.