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Thread: Advice on casino offer

  1. #16
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
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    3,275
    Quote Originally Posted by cushelle View Post
    The expected Value doesn't change if you bet on number or colour.

    Expected Value of number=
    2000x36= 72,000
    72,000x (1/37)= 1945.95
    EV= 1945.95 + 1,000

    Expected Value of colour=
    2,000x2= 4,000
    4,000 x (18/37)= 1945.95
    EV= 1945.95 + 1,000

    As you're best off doing a one off spin then the least risk for one spin is given when you put 1,000 on black 1,000 on red. Your expected value is the same, but the risk for a given spin is lower. Your best outcome is 3,000 though, whereas if you do a number 73,000. Basically there is no right or wrong bet as your expected value is the same, just how much risk/reward you want.
    No, You are wrong here. You are failing to account for the chance of the 1000 back, you are assuming you always get the 1000 back, whether you win or lose.

    The EV of a number from the 2000 stake lets look at that:

    1/37 off the time you hit the number, so 1/37 * 72000 = 1945.95 as you say
    36/37 you miss and get the 1000 back from the 2000 so thats = 973

    1945 + 973 = 2918. Minus the 2000 stake from this. The EV from this bet is then 918.

    The EV of a colour now.

    18/37 times u hit the colour for 4000, so as you say 4000 *18/37 = 1945
    19/37 you get 1000, ie. half ur stake back that is worth in EV terms 513

    1945 + 513 = 2458, minus the 2000 stake is 458!

    So count yourself WRONG cushelle please :P
    Last edited by ob; 11-10-2012 at 11:33 PM.

  2. #17
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    3,275
    Oh also, craps is the best house game to play not baccarat/puntobanco, you play the odds which are 100% gambles and you can bet 5-100 times your stake on the original pass/dontpass line bet which are already 99%+ bets to start.

  3. #18
    Yeah my bad.

  4. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by ob View Post
    Oh also, craps is the best house game to play not baccarat/puntobanco, you play the odds which are 100% gambles and you can bet 5-100 times your stake on the original pass/dontpass line bet which are already 99%+ bets to start.
    where can you pay craps live online please?

  5. #20
    nowhere that I've ever heard of/seen.

    I think I'll play 4 games of blackjack at 500 each. If I win the 1st I double up, win the 2nd I double up, win the 3rd I double up and then go back to 500 until I'm satisfied. I would get 4 cracks at this! Either that or I could do 2 attempts then have a 1000 spin on roulette covering 29-15 going through 0, 32 and 35 would be my jackpots.

  6. #21
    good point actually, how about this, you place your bet, wait for it to confirm then switch off and check in 3 days time where you either have 1000 from the cashback or goodness knows what else. Then if it is the 1000 bet it all again and repeat the process for the following week. Would you be able to resist?

  7. #22
    My horse form is putrid, I'd be very surprised if anyone does anything but lay my tips these days! But you know what'll happen... 1 day I'll bounce back with a vengeance... Saturday very nearly was that day but my banker let me down!

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